Uncovering the role of thermal inertia in establishing the seasonal
Arctic warming pattern
Abstract
The observed and projected Arctic warming pattern is characterized by an
early winter maximum and a summer minimum. While a robust feature of
Arctic climate change, the seasonal expression of surface warming
remains incompletely understood. Previous explanations attribute the
seasonality to surface energy budget changes induced by climate
feedbacks. However, these hypotheses cannot explain key features of the
simulated seasonal structure: seasonal heating rate changes and the
early winter warming maximum. We find that the increase in the thermal
inertia of the Arctic system due to the transition from a lower thermal
inertia surface (sea ice cover) to a higher thermal inertia surface (ice
free ocean) captures these key seasonal features. Our analysis shows
that the early winter Arctic warming maximum results from a slowing of
the background surface cooling rate from summer to winter, not from an
additional net energy input into the Arctic surface during that time.