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Robust future changes in meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections despite uncertainty in precipitation
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  • Anna M Ukkola,
  • Martin G De Kauwe,
  • Michael L. Roderick,
  • Gab Abramowitz,
  • Andy J Pitman
Anna M Ukkola
Australian National University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Martin G De Kauwe
University of New South Wales
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Michael L. Roderick
Australian National University
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Gab Abramowitz
University of New South Wales
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Andy J Pitman
University of New South Wales
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Abstract

Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological drought for two emissions scenarios to 2100. We find robust projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over >45% of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24% of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalised increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both precipitation mean and variability. Conversely, drought intensity increases over most regions but is not simulated well historically by the climate models. The more robust projections of meteorological drought compared to mean precipitation in CMIP6 provides significant new opportunities for water resource planning.
16 Jun 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 11. 10.1029/2020GL087820