Improving large-basin river routing using a differentiable
Muskingum-Cunge model and physics-informed machine learning
Abstract
Recently, rainfall-runoff simulations in small headwater basins have
been improved by methodological advances such as deep neural networks
(NNs) and hybrid physics-NN models — particularly, a genre called
differentiable modeling that intermingles NNs with physics to learn
relationships between variables. However, hydrologic routing, necessary
for simulating floods in stem rivers downstream of large heterogeneous
basins, had not yet benefited from these advances and it was unclear if
the routing process can be improved via coupled NNs. We present a novel
differentiable routing model that mimics the classical Muskingum-Cunge
routing model over a river network but embeds an NN to infer
parameterizations for Manning’s roughness (n) and channel geometries
from raw reach-scale attributes like catchment areas and sinuosity. The
NN was trained solely on downstream hydrographs. Synthetic experiments
show that while the channel geometry parameter was unidentifiable, n can
be identified with moderate precision. With real-world data, the trained
differentiable routing model produced more accurate long-term routing
results for both the training gage and untrained inner gages for larger
subbasins (>2,000 km2) than either a machine learning model
assuming homogeneity, or simply using the sum of runoff from subbasins.
The n parameterization trained on short periods gave high performance in
other periods, despite significant errors in runoff inputs. The learned
n pattern was consistent with literature expectations, demonstrating the
framework’s potential for knowledge discovery, but the absolute values
can vary depending on training periods. The trained n parameterization
can be coupled with traditional models to improve national-scale flood
simulations.