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A novel spatial downscaling approach for climate change assessment in regions with sparse ground data networks
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  • Hyun-Han Kwon,
  • Yong-Tak Kim,
  • Carlos Lima,
  • Ashish Sharma
Hyun-Han Kwon
Sejong University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yong-Tak Kim
Sejong University
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Carlos Lima
University of Brasília
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Ashish Sharma
UNSW
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Abstract

This study proposes a novel approach that expands the existing QDM (quantile delta mapping) to address spatial bias, using Kriging within a Bayesian framework to assess the impact of using a point reference field. Our focus here is to spatially downscale daily rainfall sequences simulated by regional climate models (RCMs), coupled to the proposed QDM-spatial bias-correction, in which the distribution parameters are first interpolated onto a fine grid (rather than the observed daily rainfall). The proposed model is validated through a cross‐validatory (CV) evaluation using rainfall data from a set of weather stations in South Korea and climate change scenarios simulated by three alternate RCMs. The results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed model to simulate the bias-corrected daily rainfall sequences over large regions at fine resolutions. A discussion of the potential use of the proposed approach in the field of hydrometeorology is also offered.