loading page

Variability in Biomass Burning Emissions Weakens Aerosol Forcing due to Nonlinear Aerosol-Cloud Interactions
  • +1
  • Kyle Benjamin Heyblom,
  • Hansi Alice Singh,
  • Philip J. Rasch,
  • Haruki Hirasawa
Kyle Benjamin Heyblom
University of Victoria

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Hansi Alice Singh
University of Victoria
Author Profile
Philip J. Rasch
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (DOE)
Author Profile
Haruki Hirasawa
University of Toronto
Author Profile

Abstract

The magnitude of the aerosol forcing remains among the largest unknowns when assessing climate sensitivity over the historical period. Here, we describe a previously unconsidered source of uncertainty in aerosol forcing: the temporal variability of aerosol emissions. We show that time-variability in biomass burning (BB) emissions weakens the time-averaged total aerosol forcing, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere mid- to high-latitudes. BB emissions variability produces weaker (less negative) mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) compared to scenarios with no interannual variability in emissions. Satellite-estimated BB emissions (and associated variability) results in a June-September absolute ERF (relative to zero BB emissions) of -7.7 W⋅m-2 from 50-70ºN, compared to -10.4 W⋅m-2 when no emissions variability is used in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). This difference in forcing is attributable to nonlinear aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol forcing will be overestimated (i.e. more negative) if emissions are temporally-smoothed.
06 Jan 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
16 Jan 2023Published in ESS Open Archive