Variability in Biomass Burning Emissions Weakens Aerosol Forcing due to
Nonlinear Aerosol-Cloud Interactions
Abstract
The magnitude of the aerosol forcing remains among the largest unknowns
when assessing climate sensitivity over the historical period. Here, we
describe a previously unconsidered source of uncertainty in aerosol
forcing: the temporal variability of aerosol emissions. We show that
time-variability in biomass burning (BB) emissions weakens the
time-averaged total aerosol forcing, particularly in the Northern
Hemisphere mid- to high-latitudes. BB emissions variability produces
weaker (less negative) mean effective radiative forcing (ERF) compared
to scenarios with no interannual variability in emissions.
Satellite-estimated BB emissions (and associated variability) results in
a June-September absolute ERF (relative to zero BB emissions) of -7.7
W⋅m-2 from 50-70ºN, compared to -10.4 W⋅m-2 when no emissions
variability is used in the Community Earth System Model version 2
(CESM2). This difference in forcing is attributable to nonlinear
aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosol forcing will be overestimated (i.e.
more negative) if emissions are temporally-smoothed.