Showcasing MESMER-X: Spatially resolved emulation of annual maximum
temperatures of Earth System Models
Abstract
Emulators of Earth System Models (ESMs) are complementary to ESMs by
providing climate information at lower computational costs. Thus far,
the emulation of spatially resolved climate extremes has only received
limited attention, even though it is one of the most impactful aspects
of climate change. Here, we propose a method for the emulation of local
annual maximum temperatures, with a focus on reproducing essential
statistical properties such as correlations in space and time. We test
different emulator configurations and find that driving the emulations
with global mean surface temperature offers an optimal compromise of
model complexity and performance. We show that the emulations can mimic
the temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the underlying climate
model simulations and are able to reproduce their natural variability.
The general design and the good performance for annual maximum
temperatures suggests that the proposed methodology can be applied to
other climate extremes.