loading page

Future risk evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic
  • +6
  • Zengyun Hu,
  • Gang Yin,
  • Daihai He,
  • Qianqian Cui,
  • Xiaomei Feng,
  • Zhidong Teng,
  • Qi Hu,
  • Jiansen Li,
  • Xia Wang
Zengyun Hu
Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Gang Yin
Xinjiang University
Author Profile
Daihai He
Hong Kong Polytechnic University
Author Profile
Qianqian Cui
Ningxia University
Author Profile
Xiaomei Feng
Yuncheng University
Author Profile
Zhidong Teng
Xinjiang University
Author Profile
Qi Hu
University of Nebraska Lincoln
Author Profile
Jiansen Li
Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
Author Profile
Xia Wang
Shaanxi Normal University
Author Profile

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this work, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 85 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, cold, and polar. A new approach is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH). Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1-2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic.