loading page

Arctic sea ice variability during the Instrumental Era
  • M. Kathleen Brennan,
  • Gregory J. Hakim,
  • Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
M. Kathleen Brennan
University of Washington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Gregory J. Hakim
University of Washington
Author Profile
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth
University of Washington
Author Profile

Abstract

Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE) has declined drastically in recent decades, yet its evolution prior to the satellite era is highly uncertain. Studies using SIE observations find little variability prior to the 1970s; however, these reconstructions are based on limited data, especially prior to the 1950s. We use ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation of surface air temperature observations with Last Millennium climate model simulations to create a fully gridded Arctic sea-ice concentration reconstruction from 1850–2018, and investigate the evolution of Arctic SIE during this period. We find a decline of ~1.25 x 106 km2 during the early 20th-century warming (1910-1940). The 25-year trends during this period are ~33-38% smaller than the satellite era (1979-2018) but almost twice as large as previous estimates. Additionally we find that variability of SIE on decadal timescales prior to satellite era is ~40% greater than previously estimated.
16 Apr 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 7. 10.1029/2019GL086843