Prediction of Atmospheric Noise Temperature at the Deep Space Network
with Machine Learning
Abstract
Ka-band (32 GHz) communications links utilized by the National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) flight missions for science
downlink are susceptible to degradation due to weather. In this study, a
customized real-time forecast system has been developed to predict
zenith atmospheric noise temperature (Tatm) at the Deep Space Network
(DSN) tracking sites using machine learning (ML). A random forest model
is trained with the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast and analysis
datasets in addition to the Tatm measurements derived from on-site
advanced water vapor radiometers (AWVR). The real-time forecast
uncertainty is quantified for different error regimes using the
Self-Organizing Map method. The results show that the Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) of the 24-hour Tatm prediction at Goldstone, CA increases
with the increase of Tatm. Ninety percent of the forecasts have RMSE
(bias) of less than 3.50 K (0.22 K) for fair-weather conditions with
Tatm < 17 K. In comparison to the current approach in
designing Ka-band communications links, application of weather forecasts
can increase data return to the downlink for 80% of the time. A
downlink gain of up to 1.61 dB (45% more data) can be realized at 20
elevation angle when Tatm = 9 K.