Simulation-and Discretization-Free Explicit Stochastic Reservoir
Operation Optimization Method
Abstract
The Fletcher-Ponnambalam (FP) method is an explicit stochastic
optimization method for design and operations management of storage
systems. It has been applied successfully in many real-world operations
optimization problems (for example, the Great Lakes system and the
Parambikulam-Aliyar project) and groundwater management problems. The FP
method faces no curse of dimensionality unlike stochastic dynamic
programming (SDP) and no need for scenarios generation as in implicit
stochastic programming (ISP) methods. The paper introduces a novel
implementation for the FP method by removing the need for nonlinear
constraints and by decreasing the number of decision variables to just
one third of its original value, significantly reducing solving time
(~27 times faster than the original formulation).
Additionally, new expressions derived for first and second moments of
both reservoir release deficit and spill terms and the already-derived
expression for second moments of reservoir storage are incorporated into
the new formulation enabling the FP method to reach an improved
optimality for a nonlinear objective function. The enhanced procedure is
applied to solving a water reservoir operation optimization problem for
a major dam in Brazil. The result comparisons made with SDP, two-stage
stochastic programming and ISP along with a thorough analysis of release
operation policies for both non-Gaussian correlated and Gaussian
independent inflows prove the optimality of this highly numerically
efficient and convenient-to-use FP method.