Quantifying geomorphically effective floods using satellite observations
of river mobility
Abstract
Geomorphologists have long debated the relative importance of
disturbance magnitude, duration and frequency in shaping landscapes. For
river-channel adjustment during floods, some argue that cumulative flood
‘power’, rather than magnitude or duration, matters most. However,
studies of flood-induced river-channel change often draw upon small
datasets. Here, we combine Sentinel-2 imagery with flow data from
laterally-active rivers to address this question using a larger dataset.
We apply automated algorithms in Google Earth Engine to map rivers and
detect their lateral shifting; we generate a large dataset to quantify
channel change during 160 floods across New Zealand, Russia, and South
America. Widening during these floods is best explained by their
duration and cumulative hydrograph. We use a random forest regression
model to predict flood-induced channel widening, with potential
applications for hazard management. Ultimately, better global data on
sediment supply and caliber would help us to understand flood-driven
change to river planforms.