Abstract
Climate is a key factor affecting water and energy resources. To
quantify its effect, researchers have developed statistical and
mechanistic models that simulate the interactions of the
Water-Energy-Climate Nexus (WECN). In this work, we address two
limitations of current WECN models, including the need to (1) account
for the impact of climate on both demand and supply of water and energy,
and (2) consider the influence of multiple climate variables in addition
to temperature and precipitation. For this aim, we build upon our
existing model that simulates in coupled fashion the water and energy
systems of the metropolitan region of Phoenix, AZ. We design
multidecadal storylines of future climate using an ensemble of
downscaled general circulation models from CMIP6, along with possible
energy infrastructure expansion scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model
to account for the climate impacts on surface water supply sources. We
constrain electricity supply based on water availability and
temperature-dependent water intensities for power production. In
parallel, we consider the effect of climate on demand through
multilinear regressions between per-capita water and energy demand and
several climate variables. This work advances the simulation of WECN
interactions by integrating statistical and mechanistic models of water
and energy systems with climate and hydrologic models. While the
modeling framework is tested in the Phoenix metropolitan region, our
findings provide useful insights that support WECN modeling efforts in
other regions.