Using simple, explainable neural networks to predict the Madden-Julian
oscillation
Abstract
Few studies have utilized machine learning techniques to predict or
understand the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), a key source of
subseasonal variability and predictability. Here we present a simple
framework for real-time MJO prediction using shallow artificial neural
networks (ANNs). We construct two ANN architectures, one deterministic
and one probabilistic, that predict a real-time MJO index using maps of
tropical variables. These ANNs make skillful MJO predictions out to
~17 days in October-March and ~10 days
in April-September, outperforming conventional linear models and
efficiently capturing aspects of MJO predictability found in more
complex, dynamical models. The flexibility and explainability of simple
ANN frameworks is highlighted through varying model input and applying
ANN explainability techniques that reveal sources and regions important
for ANN prediction skill. The accessibility, performance, and efficiency
of this simple machine learning framework is more broadly applicable to
predict and understand other Earth system phenomena.