Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and
sustainability pathways
Abstract
The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and
climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable
development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing
of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in
the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral
dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the
global change scenarios, i.e., the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the
Representative Concentration Pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated
assessment model of human-Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve
two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the
adoption of established scenarios in new integrated assessment models;
(2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural
complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable
development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario
storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different
realisations of these scenarios compared to other integrated assessment
models due to the new model’s structural complexity. The results
highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and
their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different
input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future
possibilities and sustainability indicators.