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Diversifying models for analysing global change scenarios and sustainability pathways
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  • Enayat A. Moallemi,
  • Lei Gao,
  • Sibel Eker,
  • Brett Anthony Bryan
Enayat A. Moallemi
Deakin University, Deakin University, Deakin University, Deakin University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Lei Gao
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Sibel Eker
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
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Brett Anthony Bryan
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Abstract

The future uncertainty and complexity of alternative socioeconomic and climatic scenarios challenge the model-based analysis of sustainable development. Obtaining robust insights requires a systematic processing of uncertainty and complexity not only in input assumptions, but also in the diversity of model structures that simulates the multisectoral dynamics of human and Earth system interactions. Here, we implement the global change scenarios, i.e., the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways, in a feedback-rich, integrated assessment model of human-Earth system dynamics, called FeliX, to serve two aims: (1) to provide modellers with well-defined steps for the adoption of established scenarios in new integrated assessment models; (2) to explore the impacts of model uncertainty and its structural complexity on the projection of these scenarios for sustainable development. Our modelling shows internally consistent scenario storylines across sectors, yet with quantitatively different realisations of these scenarios compared to other integrated assessment models due to the new model’s structural complexity. The results highlight the importance of enumerating global change scenarios and their uncertainty exploration with a diversity of models of different input assumptions and structures to capture a wider variety of future possibilities and sustainability indicators.
2022Published in Global Sustainability volume 5. 10.1017/sus.2022.7