Quantifying the Safe Operating Space for Land-System SDG Achievement via
Machine Learning Meta-Modelling and Scenario Discovery
Abstract
We developed a machine learning based meta-model to identify
sustainability pathways through rapid scenario generation and defined
the safe operating space for achieving them via scenario discovery. We
trained a meta-model to replicate the Land-Use Trade-Offs integrated
model of the Australian land system. Latin hypercube sampling was used
to create many scenarios exploring the impact of uncertainties in key
drivers including future socio-economic development, climate change
mitigation, and agricultural productivity at a granular level. Economic
and environmental impacts were evaluated against nationally downscaled
SDG targets. Scenario discovery revealed new pathways to achieving five
SDG targets for 2050 which required crop yield increases above 1.78
times, a carbon price above 100 AU$ tCO2-1, a > 9%
biodiversity levy on carbon plantings, and carefully regulated land-use
policy. Machine learning based meta-modelling teamed with scenario
discovery revealed the policy and scenario settings required for a
sustainable future for the Australian land sector.