Exploring pathways to more accurate machine learning emulation of
atmospheric radiative transfer
Abstract
Machine learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid physics is a growing
research area. A key question is whether traditional ML methods such as
feed-forward neural networks (FNNs) are better suited for representing
only specific processes. Radiation schemes are an interesting example,
because they compute radiative flows through the atmosphere using
well-established physical equations. The sequential aspect of the
problem implies that FNNs may not be well-suited for it. This study
explores whether emulating the entire radiation scheme is more difficult
than its components without vertical dependencies. FNNs were trained to
replace a shortwave radiation scheme, its gas optics component, and its
reflectance-transmittance computations. In addition, a novel recurrent
NN (RNN) method was developed to structurally incorporate the vertical
dependence and sequential nature of radiation computations. It is found
that a bidirectional RNN with an order of magnitude fewer model
parameters than FNN is considerably more accurate, while offering a
smaller but still significant 4-fold speedup over the original code on
CPUs, and a much greater speedup on GPUs. The RNN predicts fluxes with
less than 1\% error, and heating rates computed from
fluxes have a root-mean-square-error of 0.16 K day$^{-1}$ in
offline tests using a year of global data. Finally, FNNs emulating gas
optics are very accurate while being several times faster. As with RNNs
emulating radiative transfer, the smaller dimensionality may be crucial
for developing models that are general enough to be used as
parameterizations.