TITLE : Embedding communication concepts in forecasting training increases students’ understanding of ecological uncertainty Submitted as an Article to Ecosphere , Eco-Education TrackAUTHOR LIST: Whitney M. Woelmera*, Tadhg N. Moorea,b11Present address: School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University College Cork, Cork, Ireland, Mary E. Loftona, R. Quinn Thomasa,b, and Cayelan C. CareyaaDepartment of Biological Sciences, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USAbDepartment of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA*Corresponding author: [email protected] RESEARCH STATEMENT : This study collected and analyzed human subject data and was approved by the Virginia Tech Institutional Review Board (19-669) and the Carleton College Institutional Review Board (19-20 065). Data for this study have been anonymized and aggregated and can be found at Woelmer (2023) along with all code to reproduce the analysis and figures within this study.Woelmer, W. 2023. Wwoelmer/module8_public_ecosphere: Ecosphere submission March 2023 (v1.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7733965KEYWORDS : active learning, ecology education, ecological forecast, Macrosystems EDDIE, R Shiny, teaching modules, translational ecology, undergraduate curricula, visualization literacyABSTRACT : Communicating and interpreting uncertainty in ecological model predictions is notoriously challenging, motivating the need for new educational tools which introduce ecology students to core concepts in uncertainty communication. Ecological forecasting, an emerging approach to estimate future states of ecological systems with uncertainty, provides a relevant and engaging framework for introducing uncertainty communication to undergraduate students, as forecasts can be used as decision support tools for addressing real-world ecological problems and are inherently uncertain. To provide critical training on uncertainty communication and introduce undergraduate students to the use of ecological forecasts for guiding decision-making, we developed a hands-on teaching module within the Macrosystems EDDIE (Environmental Data-Driven Inquiry and Exploration; MacrosystemsEDDIE.org) educational program. Our module used an active learning approach by embedding forecasting activities in an R Shiny application to engage introductory students in data science, ecological modeling, and forecasting without needing advanced computational or programming skills. Pre- and post-module assessment data from >250 undergraduate ecology students indicate that the module significantly increased students’ ability to interpret forecast visualizations with uncertainty, identify different ways to communicate forecast uncertainty for diverse users, and correctly define ecological forecasting terms. Specifically, students were more likely to describe visual, numeric, and probabilistic methods of uncertainty communication following module completion. Students were also able to identify more benefits of ecological forecasting following module completion, with the key benefits of using forecasts for prediction and decision-making most commonly described. These results show promise for introducing ecological model uncertainty, data visualizations, and forecasting into undergraduate ecology curricula via software-based learning, which can increase students’ ability to engage and understand complex ecological concepts.

Freshwater ecosystems provide vital services, yet are facing increasing risks from global change. In particular, lake thermal dynamics have been altered around the world as a result of climate change, necessitating a predictive understanding of how climate will continue to alter lakes in the future as well as the associated uncertainty in these predictions. Numerous sources of uncertainty affect projections of future lake conditions but few are quantified, limiting the use of lake modeling projections as management tools. To quantify and evaluate the effects of two potentially important sources of uncertainty, lake model selection uncertainty and climate model selection uncertainty, we developed ensemble projections of lake thermal dynamics for a dimictic lake in New Hampshire, USA (Lake Sunapee). Our ensemble projections used four different climate models as inputs to five vertical one-dimensional (1-D) hydrodynamic lake models under three different climate change scenarios to simulate thermal metrics from 2006 to 2099. We found that almost all the lake thermal metrics modeled (surface water temperature, bottom water temperature, Schmidt stability, stratification duration, and ice cover, but not thermocline depth) are projected to change over the next century. Importantly, we found that the dominant source of uncertainty varied among the thermal metrics, as thermal metrics associated with the surface waters (surface water temperature, total ice duration) were driven primarily by climate model selection uncertainty, while metrics associated with deeper depths (bottom water temperature, stratification duration) were dominated by lake model selection uncertainty. Consequently, our results indicate that researchers generating projections of lake bottom water metrics should prioritize including multiple lake models for best capturing projection uncertainty, while those focusing on lake surface metrics should prioritize including multiple climate models. Overall, our ensemble modeling study reveals important information on how climate change will affect lake thermal properties, and also provides some of the first analyses on how climate model selection uncertainty and lake model selection uncertainty interact to affect projections of future lake dynamics.

Oxygen availability is decreasing in many lakes and reservoirs worldwide, raising the urgency for understanding how anoxia (low oxygen) affects coupled biogeochemical cycling, which has major implications for water quality, food webs, and ecosystem functioning. Although the increasing magnitude and prevalence of anoxia has been documented in freshwaters globally, the challenges of disentangling oxygen and temperature responses have hindered assessment of the effects of anoxia on carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations, stoichiometry (chemical ratios), and retention in freshwaters. The consequences of anoxia are likely severe and may be irreversible, necessitating ecosystem-scale experimental investigation of decreasing freshwater oxygen availability. To address this gap, we devised and conducted REDOX (the Reservoir Ecosystem Dynamic Oxygenation eXperiment), an unprecedented, seven-year experiment in which we manipulated and modeled bottom-water (hypolimnetic) oxygen availability at the whole-ecosystem scale in a eutrophic reservoir. Seven years of data reveal that anoxia significantly increased hypolimnetic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations and altered elemental stoichiometry by factors of 2-5 relative to oxic periods. Importantly, prolonged summer anoxia increased nitrogen export from the reservoir by six-fold and changed the reservoir from a net sink to a net source of phosphorus and organic carbon downstream. While low oxygen in freshwaters is thought of as a response to land use and climate change, results from REDOX demonstrate that low oxygen can also be a driver of major changes to freshwater biogeochemical cycling, which may serve as an intensifying feedback that increases anoxia in downstream waterbodies. Consequently, as climate and land use change continue to increase the prevalence of anoxia in lakes and reservoirs globally, it is likely that anoxia will have major effects on freshwater carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus budgets as well as water quality and ecosystem functioning.

The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON)’s standardized monitoring program provides an unprecedented opportunity for comparing the predictability of ecosystems. To harness the power of NEON data for examining environmental predictability, we scaled a near-term, iterative water temperature forecasting system to all six conterminous NEON lakes. We generated 1 to 35-day ahead forecasts using a process-based hydrodynamic model that was updated with observations as they became available. Forecasts were more accurate than a null model up to 35-days ahead among lakes, with an aggregated 1-day ahead RMSE (root-mean square error) of 0.60℃ and 35-days ahead RMSE of 2.17℃. Water temperature forecast accuracy was positively associated with lake depth and water clarity, and negatively associated with catchment size and fetch. Our results suggest that lake characteristics interact with weather to control the predictability of thermal structure. Our work provides some of the first probabilistic forecasts of NEON sites and a framework for examining continental-scale predictability.

1. Freshwater phytoplankton communities are currently experiencing multiple global change stressors, including increasing frequency and intensity of storms. An important mechanism by which storms affect lake and reservoir phytoplankton is by altering the water column’s thermal structure (e.g., changes to thermocline depth). However, little is known about the effects of intermittent thermocline deepening on phytoplankton community vertical distribution and composition or the consistency of phytoplankton responses to varying frequency of these disturbances over multiple years. 2. We conducted whole-ecosystem thermocline deepening manipulations in a small reservoir. We used an epilimnetic mixing system to experimentally deepen the thermocline in two summers, simulating potential responses to storms, and did not manipulate thermocline depth in two succeeding summers. We collected weekly depth profiles of water temperature, light, nutrients, and phytoplankton biomass as well as discrete samples to assess phytoplankton community composition. We then used time-series analysis and multivariate ordination to assess the effects of intermittent thermocline deepening due to both our experimental manipulations and naturally-occurring storms on phytoplankton community structure. 3. We observed inter-annual and intra-annual variability in phytoplankton community response to thermocline deepening. We found that peak phytoplankton biomass was significantly deeper in years with a higher frequency of thermocline deepening events (i.e., years with both manipulations and natural storms) due to weaker thermal stratification and deeper depth distributions of soluble reactive phosphorus. Furthermore, we found that the depth of peak phytoplankton biomass was linked to phytoplankton community composition, with certain taxa being associated with deep or shallow biomass peaks, often according to functional traits such as optimal growth temperature, mixotrophy, and low-light tolerance. 4. Our results demonstrate that abrupt thermocline deepening due to water column mixing affects both phytoplankton depth distribution and community structure via alteration of physical and chemical gradients. In addition, our work supports previous research that phytoplankton depth distribution and community composition interact at inter-annual and intra-annual timescales. 5. Variability in the inter-annual and intra-annual responses of phytoplankton to abrupt thermocline deepening indicates that antecedent conditions and the seasonal timing of surface water mixing may mediate these responses. Our findings emphasize that phytoplankton depth distributions are sensitive to global change stressors and effects on depth distributions should be taken into account when predicting phytoplankton responses to increased storms under global change.

Globally-significant quantities of carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) enter freshwater reservoirs each year. These inputs can be buried in sediments, respired, taken up by organisms, emitted to the atmosphere, or exported downstream. While much is known about reservoir-scale biogeochemical processing, less is known about spatial and temporal variability of biogeochemistry within a reservoir along the continuum from inflowing streams to the dam. To address this gap, we examined longitudinal variability in surface water biogeochemistry (C, N, and P) in two small reservoirs throughout a thermally-stratified season. We sampled total and dissolved fractions of C, N, and P, and chlorophyll-a from each reservoir’s major inflows to the dam. We found that time was generally a more important driver of heterogeneity in biogeochemical concentrations than space. However, dissolved nutrient and organic carbon concentrations had high site-to-site variability within both reservoirs, potentially as a result of shifting biological activity or environmental conditions. When considering spatially explicit processing, we found that certain locations within the reservoir, most often the stream-reservoir interface, acted as ‘hotspots’ of change in biogeochemical concentrations. Our study suggests that spatially explicit metrics of biogeochemical processing could help constrain the role of reservoirs in C, N, and P cycles in the landscape. Ultimately, our results highlight that biogeochemical heterogeneity in small reservoirs is driven more by seasonality than longitudinal spatial gradients, and that some sites within reservoirs play critically important roles in whole-ecosystem biogeochemical processing.

As climate and land use increase the variability of many ecosystems, forecasts of ecological variables are needed to inform management and use of ecosystem services. In particular, forecasts of phytoplankton would be especially useful for drinking water management, as phytoplankton populations are exhibiting greater fluctuations due to human activities. While phytoplankton forecasts are increasing in number, many questions remain regarding the optimal model time step (the temporal frequency of the forecast model output), time horizon (the length of time into the future a prediction is made) for maximizing forecast performance, as well as what factors contribute to uncertainty in forecasts and their scalability among sites. To answer these questions, we developed near-term, iterative forecasts of phytoplankton 1 to 14 days into the future using forecast models with three different time steps (daily, weekly, fortnightly), that included a full uncertainty partitioning analysis at two drinking water reservoirs. We found that forecast accuracy varies with model time step and forecast horizon, and that forecast models can outperform null estimates under most conditions. Weekly and fortnightly forecasts consistently outperformed daily forecasts at 7-day and 14-day horizons, a trend which increased up to the 14-day forecast horizon. Importantly, our work suggests that forecast accuracy can be increased by matching the forecast model time step to the forecast horizon for which predictions are needed. We found that model process uncertainty was the primary source of uncertainty in our phytoplankton forecasts over the forecast period, but parameter uncertainty increased during phytoplankton blooms and when scaling the forecast model to a new site. Overall, our scalability analysis shows promising results that simple models can be transferred to produce forecasts at additional sites. Altogether, our study advances our understanding of how forecast model time step and forecast horizon influence the forecastability of phytoplankton dynamics in aquatic systems, and adds to the growing body of work regarding the predictability of ecological systems broadly.