Abstract
We present a machine learning based emulator of a microphysics scheme
for condensation and precipitation processes (Zhao-Carr) used
operationally in a global atmospheric forecast model (FV3GFS). Our
tailored emulator architecture achieves high skill (≥94%) in predicting
condensate and precipitation amounts and maintains low global-average
bias (≤4%) for 1 year of continuous simulation when replacing the
Fortran scheme. The stability and success of this emulator stems from
key design decisions. By separating the emulation of condensation and
precipitation processes, we can better enforce physical priors such as
mass conservation and locality of condensation, and the vertical
dependence of precipitation falling downward, using specific network
architectures. An activity classifier for condensation imitates the
discrete-continuous nature of the Fortran microphysics outputs (i.e.,
tendencies are identically zero where the scheme is inactive, and
condensate is zero where clouds are fully evaporated). A
temperature-scaled conditional loss function ensures accurate condensate
adjustments for a high dynamic range of cloud types (e.g., cold,
low-condensate cirrus clouds or warm, condensate-rich clouds). Despite
excellent overall performance, the emulator exhibits some deficiencies
in the uppermost model levels, leading to biases in the stratosphere.
The emulator also has short episodic skill dropouts in isolated grid
columns and is computationally slower than the original Fortran scheme.
Nonetheless, our challenges and strategies should be applicable to the
emulation of other microphysical schemes. More broadly, our work
demonstrates that with suitable physically motivated architectural
choices, ML techniques can accurately emulate complex human-designed
parameterizations of fast physical processes central to weather and
climate models.