Modeling Multi-Objective Pareto-Optimal Reservoir Operation Policies
using State-of-the-art Modeling Techniques
Abstract
A novel challenge faced by the water scientists and water managers today
is the efficient management of the available water resources for meeting
crucial demands such as drinking water supply and irrigation at the same
time ensuring sufficient water is available for other critical
activities such as hydro-power generation. Modeling of optimal operation
polices is imminent for better management of reservoir systems
especially under competing multiple objectives such as irrigation, flood
control, water supply etc., with decreasing reliability of these systems
under climate change. This study compares six different state-of-the-art
modeling techniques namely; Deterministic Dynamic Programming (DDP),
Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP), Implicit Stochastic Optimization
(ISO), Fitted Q-Iteration (FQI), Sampling Stochastic Dynamic Programming
(SSDP), and Model Predictive Control (MPC), in modeling pareto-optimal
operational policies considering two competing reservoir operational
objectives of irrigation and flood control for the Pong reservoir system
in Beas River, India. Pareto-optimal (approximate) set of operation
policies were derived using the six methods mentioned above based on
different convex combinations of the two objectives and finally the
performances of the resulting sets of pareto-optimal operational
solutions were compared with respect to resilience, reliability ,
vulnerability and sustainability indices. Modeling results suggests that
the optimal-operational solution designed via DDP attains the best
performance followed by the MPC and FQI. The performance of Pong
reservoir operation assessed by comparing different performance indices
suggest that there is high vulnerability (~0.65) and low
resilience (~0.10) in current operations and the
development of pareto-optimal operation solutions using multiple
state-of-the-art modeling techniques might be crucial for making better
reservoir operation decisions.