Dynamic Bayesian networks for evaluation of Granger causal relationships
in climate reanalyses
Abstract
We apply a Bayesian structure learning approach to study interactions
between global teleconnection modes, illustrating its use as a framework
for developing process-based diagnostics with which to evaluate climate
models. Homogeneous dynamic Bayesian network models are constructed for
time series of empirical indices diagnosing the activity of major
tropical, Northern and Southern Hemisphere modes in the NCEP/NCAR and
JRA-55 reanalyses. The resulting probabilistic graphical models are
comparable to Granger causal analyses that have recently been advocated.
Reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo is employed to provide a
quantification of the uncertainty associated with the selection of a
single network structure. In general, the models fitted from the
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and the JRA-55 reanalysis are found to exhibit
broad agreement in terms of associations for which there is high
posterior confidence. Differences between the two reanalyses are found
that involve modes for which known biases are present or that may be
attributed to seasonal effects, as well as for features that, while
present in point estimates, have low overall posterior mass. We argue
that the ability to incorporate such measures of confidence in
structural features is a significant advantage provided by the Bayesian
approach, as point estimates alone may understate the relevant
uncertainties and yield less informative measures of differences between
products when network-based approaches are used for model evaluation.