An estimate of excess mortality resulting from air pollution caused by
wildfires in the eastern and central Mediterranean basin in 2021
Abstract
Wildfires result in human fatalities not only due to the direct exposure
to flames, but also indirectly through smoke inhalation. The
Mediterranean basin with its hot and dry summers is a hotspot for such
devastating events. The situation has further been aggravated in recent
years by climate change as well as a growing and aging population in the
region. To assess the health impacts due to short-term exposure to air
pollution created by the 2021 summer wildfires in the eastern and
central Mediterranean basin, we used a regional-scale chemistry
transport model to simulate concentrations of major air pollutants such
as fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 μm
(PM2.5), SO2, NO2, and
O3 - in a fire and a no-fire scenario. Elevated
short-term exposure of the population to air pollutants are associated
with excess all-cause mortality using relative risks for individual
pollutants from previously published meta-analyses. Our estimates
indicate that the short-term exposure to wildfire-caused changes in
O3 accounted for 741 (95% CI:556-940) excess deaths in
total over the entire region of investigation during the wildfire season
between mid-July to early October 2021. This is followed by 270 (95%
CI:177-370) excess deaths due to elevated PM2.5
exposure, rendering the health effect of increased O3
from wildfires larger than the effect of increased
PM2.5. We show this to be attributed largely to the
spatially more widespread impact of wildfires on O3. Our
study concludes with a discussion on uncertainties associated with the
health impact assessment based on different air pollutants.