RISK ASSESSMENT OF HEPATITIS-A TRANSMISSION THROUGH THE USE OF
SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC AND REMOTE SENSING DATA: A CASE STUDY OF THE STATE OF
PARÁ, BRAZIL
Abstract
Hepatitis-A is a waterborne infectious disease transmitted by the
eponymous hepatitis-A virus (HAV). Due to the disease’s sociodemographic
and environmental characteristics, this study applied public census and
remote sensing data to assess risk factors for hepatitis-A transmission.
Municipality-level data were obtained for the state of Pará, Brazil.
Generalized linear and non-linear models were evaluated as alternative
predictors for hepatitis-A transmission in Pará. The Histogram Gradient
Boost (HGB) regression model was deemed the best choice (RMSE= 2.36, and
higher R^2 = 0.95) among the tested models. Partial dependence
analysis (PDA) and permutation feature importance analysis (PFI) were
used to investigate the partial dependences and the relative importance
values of the independent variables in the disease transmission
prediction model. Results indicated a complex relationship between the
disease transmission and the sociodemographic and environmental
characteristics of the study area. Population size, lack of sanitation,
urban clustering, year of notification, insufficient public vaccination
programs, household proximity to open-air dumpsites and storm-drains,
and lack of access to healthcare facilities and hospitals are
sociodemographic parameters related to HAV transmission. Turbidity and
precipitation are the environmental parameters closest related to
disease transmission. This study reinforces the need to incorporate
remote sensing data in epidemiological modelling and surveillance plans
for the development of early prevention strategies for hepatitis-A.