Evaluation of Extreme Temperatures over Australia in the Historical
Simulations of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models
Abstract
Historical simulations of models participating in the 6th phase of the
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated over ten
Australian regions for their performance in simulating extreme
temperatures. Based on two observational datasets, the Australian Water
Availability Project (AWAP) and the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperatures
(BEST), we first analyze the models’ abilities in simulating the
probability distributions of daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX
and TN), followed by the spatial patterns and temporal variations of
temperature-related extreme indices, as defined by the Expert Team on
Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Overall, the CMIP6 models
are comparable to CMIP5, with modest improvements shown in CMIP6.
Compared to CMIP5, the CMIP6 ensemble tends to have narrower
interquartile model ranges for some cold extremes, as well as narrower
ensemble ranges in temporal trends for most indices. Over southeast,
tropical and southern south regions, both CMIP ensembles generally
exhibit relatively large deficiencies in simulating temperature
extremes. It is also noted that models with relatively coarse resolution
sometimes show better performance, suggesting that some localized
processes may need further improvement in finer-scale models. With the
assessment on the probability distributions of TX and TN, the results of
this study provide more robustness on the evaluation of extreme
temperatures and more confidence on future projections. The findings of
this study demonstrate only incremental improvement on the simulation of
extremes over Australia from CMIP5 to CMIP6. However, they are useful in
informing and interpreting future projections of temperature-related
extremes over the region.