Abstract
Flash droughts are characterized by an abrupt onset and swift
intensification. Global surface soil moisture (θRS) from NASA’s Soil
Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite can facilitate a near-real-time
assessment of emerging flash droughts at 36-km footprint. However, a
robust flash drought monitoring using θRS must account for the i) short
observation record of SMAP, ii) non-linear geophysical controls over θRS
dynamics, and, iii) emergent meteorological drivers of flash droughts.
We propose a new method for near-real-time characterization of droughts
using Soil Moisture Stress (SMS, drought stress) and Relative Rate of
Drydown (RRD, drought stress intensification rate) ─ developed using
SMAP θRS (March 2015-2019) and footprint-scale seasonal soil water
retention parameters and land-atmospheric coupling strength. SMS and RRD
are nonlinearly combined to develop Flash Drought Stress Index (FDSI) to
characterize emerging flash droughts (FDSI ≥ 0.71 for moderate to high
RRD and SMS). Globally, FDSI shows high correlation with concurrent
meteorological anomalies. A retrospective evaluation of select droughts
is demonstrated using FDSI, including a mechanistic evaluation of the
2017 flash drought in the Northern Great Plains. About 5.2% of earth’s
landmass experienced flash droughts of varying intensity and duration
during 2015-2019 (FDSI ≥ 0.71 for >30 consecutive days),
majorly in global drylands. FDSI shows high skill in forecasting
vegetation health with a lead of 0-2 weeks, with exceptions in irrigated
croplands and mixed forests. With readily available parameters, low data
latency, and no dependence on model simulations, we provide a robust
tool for global near-real-time flash drought monitoring using SMAP.