Luc Moutote

and 4 more

Following laboratory experiments and friction theory, slow slip events and seismicity rate accelerations observed before mainshock are often interpreted as evidence of a nucleation phase. However, such precursory observations still remain scarce and are associated with different time and length scales, raising doubts about their actual preparatory nature. We study the 2017 Valparaiso Mw= 6.9 earthquake, which was preceded by aseismic slip accompanied by an intense seismicity both suspected to reflect its nucleation phase. We complement previous observations, which have focused only on precursory activity, with a continuous investigation of seismic and aseismic processes from the foreshock sequence to the post-mainshock phase. By building a high-resolution seismicity catalog and searching for anomalous seismicity rate increases compared to aftershock triggering models, we highlight an over-productive seismicity starting within the foreshock sequence and persisting several days after the mainshock. Using repeating earthquakes and high-rate GPS observations, we highlight a transient aseismic perturbation starting just before the first foreshock and extending continuously after the mainshock. The estimated slip rate is lightly impacted by large magnitude earthquakes and does not accelerate towards the mainshock. Therefore, the unusual seismic and aseismic activity observed during the 2017 Valparaiso sequence might be interpreted as the result of a slow slip event starting before the mainshock and extending beyond it. Rather than pointing to a possible nucleation phase of the 2017 Valparaiso mainshock, the identified slow slip event acts as an aseismic loading of nearby faults, increasing the seismic activity, and thus the likelihood of a large rupture.

Luc Moutote

and 2 more

One of the key questions in fault mechanics is how do earthquakes begin ? This is central to our understanding of earthquakes, including the long controversial issue of their predictability. Earthquakes preceding large events are commonly referred to as foreshocks. They are often considered as precursory phenomena reflecting a nucleation process of the main rupture potentially driven by an underlying slow pre-slip. On the other hand, some studies suggest that foreshock sequences may only be explained by cascades of triggered events. In this work, we choose to test the cascading hypothesis against the foreshock seismicity observed during a previously reported slow slip event preceding the 2017 Mw=6.9 Valparaiso earthquake. We build a very complete 5 years long earthquake catalog of the sequence using refine detection and location algorithms. We test the detected seismicity against the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences model. We identify time windows with anomalously high seismic activity compared to what is expected by the typical earthquake interactions. We analyze statistically these anomalies over 5 years to understand if the Mw=6.9 foreshock sequence presents a specific anomalous activity. In addition, using a hierarchical clustering method, we identify earthquakes with similar waveforms to evidence any repeating ruptures. We analyze the time distribution of these clusters over 5 years to understand if unusual rates of repeating events emerge during foreshock time ranges. The conjoint analysis of seismicity rate anomalies and repeating events along with the results of previous pre-slip studies allows to accurately describe the nucleation process and evolution of the 2017 Valparaiso earthquake sequence.