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Impact of the 2019/2020 Australian megafires on Air Quality and Health
  • +12
  • Ailish M Graham,
  • Kirsty J. Pringle,
  • Richard J Pope,
  • Steve Robert Arnold,
  • Luke Conibear,
  • Helen Burns,
  • Richard Rigby,
  • Nicolás Borchers-Arriagada,
  • Edward William Butt,
  • Laura Kiely,
  • Carly Lauren Serena Reddington,
  • Dominick Vincent Spracklen,
  • Matthew Thomas Woodhouse,
  • Christoph Knote,
  • James B McQuaid
Ailish M Graham
University of Leeds

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kirsty J. Pringle
University of Leeds
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Richard J Pope
University of Leeds
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Steve Robert Arnold
University of Leeds
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Luke Conibear
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
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Helen Burns
University of Leeds
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Richard Rigby
University of Leeds
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Nicolás Borchers-Arriagada
Menzies Institute for Medical Research
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Edward William Butt
University of Leeds
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Laura Kiely
University of Leeds
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Carly Lauren Serena Reddington
Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds
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Dominick Vincent Spracklen
University of Leeds
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Matthew Thomas Woodhouse
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Christoph Knote
University of Augsburg, Germany
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James B McQuaid
University of Leeds
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Abstract

The Australian 2019/2020 bushfires were unprecedented in both their extent and intensity, causing a catastrophic loss of habitat and human and animal life across eastern-Australia. Between October 2019 and February 2020 hundreds of fires burned, peaking in size in December and January and releasing the equivalent of half of Australia’s annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. We use a high-resolution atmospheric-chemistry transport model to assess the impact of the bushfires on particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) concentrations across eastern Australia. The health burden from short-term population exposure to PM2.5 is then quantified using a concentration response function. We find that between October and February an additional ~1.9 million people in eastern-Australia were exposed to ‘Poor’, ‘Very Poor’ and ‘Hazardous’ air quality index levels due to the fires. The impact of the bushfires on AQ was concentrated in the cities of Sydney, Newcastle-Maitland and Canberra-Queanbeyan during November, December and, also in Melbourne, in January. The health burden of bushfire PM2.5 across eastern-Australia, regionally and at city level is also estimated. Our estimate indicates that between October and February 171 (95% CI: 66 – 291) deaths were brought forward. The health burden was largest in New South Wales (109 (95% CI: 41 – 176) deaths brought forward), Queensland (15 (95% CI: 5 – 24)) and Victoria (35 (95% CI: 13 – 56)). At a city level the health burden was concentrated in Sydney (65 (95% CI: 24 – 105)), Melbourne (23 (95% CI: 9 – 38)) and Canberra-Queanbeyan (9 (95% CI: 4 – 14)), where large populations were exposed to high PM2.5 concentrations due to the bushfires.
Oct 2021Published in GeoHealth volume 5 issue 10. 10.1029/2021GH000454