Using the mid-Holocene ‘greening’ of the Sahara to narrow acceptable
ranges on climate model parameters
Abstract
During the early to mid-Holocene vegetation expanded to cover much of
the present-day Sahara. Although driven by a well-understood difference
in the orbital configuration, general circulation models have generally
failed to simulate the required rainfall increase. One possible
explanation is the presence of systematic biases in the representations
of atmospheric convection which might also impact future projections. We
employ a Bayesian method to learn from an ensemble of present day and
mid-Holocene simulations that vary parameters in the convection,
boundary layer and cloud schemes. The model can reproduce the ‘Green
Sahara’ rainfall if mixing between convective plumes and the environment
is increased in the upper troposphere relative to lower down. This does
not appreciably impact the present day simulation, meaning that the
palaeoclimate reconstructions are able to narrow constraints on suitable
parameter ranges. This suggests that other uncertain components of
climate models could be targeted in this way.