Modeling and Forecasting Human Modified Streamflow Using a Recurrent
Neural Network
Abstract
Providing accurate forecasts of human modified streamflow is critical
for applications ranging from natural resource management to hydropower
generation. In this study we evaluate the performance of Long Short Term
Memory (LSTM) based neural networks, which maintain an internal set of
states and are therefore well-suited to modeling dynamical processes.
This research builds on previous work demonstrating that an LSTM model
can predict streamflow in out of sample basins with similar or greater
accuracy than traditional forecast models specifically calibrated on
those basins [1]. Using meteorological data from NOAA’s Global
Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Land Data Assimilation
System (NLDAS), remote sensing data including snow cover, vegetation and
surface temperature from NASA’s MODIS sensors and streamflow data from
USGS, we first train an LSTM model on 100 unmodified river basins, and
evaluate its predictions on previously unseen human-altered basins. We
then train models on a combination of natural and human modified basins
and experiment with the effects of new data sources and additional model
architecture in predicting human altered streamflow. By training on
multiple basins with dynamic climate, land surface and human inputs, we
can test the model’s understanding of general hydrologic relationships
and human use patterns. We evaluate our models on “out of sample”
rivers (previously unseen by the model) that have been altered by dam
operations and agricultural withdrawals in northern California. We find
that the models trained on natural and modified basins capture human
modified flows better than our baseline model trained on natural basins.
[1] Kratzert, F., Klotz D., Shalev, G., Klambauer, G., Hochreiter,
S. & Nearing, G. Benchmarking a Catchment-Aware Long Short-Term Memory
Network (LSTM) for Large-Scale Hydrological Modeling. Preprint at
https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.08456 (2019)