Characterizing Climatic Socio-Environmental Tipping Points in Coastal
Communities: A Conceptual Framework for Research and Practice
Abstract
The concept of climate tipping points in socio-environmental systems is
increasingly being used to describe nonlinear climate change impacts and
encourage social transformations in response to climate change. However,
the processes that lead to these tipping points and their impacts are
highly complex and deeply uncertain. This is due to numerous interacting
environmental and societal system components, constant system evolution,
and uncertainty in the relationships between events and their
consequences. In the face of this complexity and uncertainty, this
research presents a conceptual framework that describes systemic
processes that could lead to tipping points socio-environmental systems,
with a focus on coastal communities facing sea level rise. Within this
context, we propose an organizational framework for system description
that consists of elements, state variables, links, internal processes,
and exogenous influences. This framework is then used to describe three
mechanisms by which socio-environmental tipping could occur: feedback
processes, cascading linkages, and nonlinear relationships. We presented
this conceptual framework to an expert panel of coastal practitioners
and found that it has potential to characterize the effects of secondary
climatic impacts that are rarely the focus of coastal risk analyses.
Finally, we identify salient areas for further research that can build
upon the proposed conceptual framework to inform practical efforts that
support climate adaptation and resilience.