On the robustness of the evaluation of ENSO in climate models: How many
ensemble members are needed?
Abstract
Large ensembles of model simulations require considerable resources, and
thus defining an appropriate ensemble size for a particular application
is an important experimental design criterion. Utilizing the recently
developed CLIVAR ENSO Metrics Package (Planton et al., 2021), we
estimate the ensemble size (N) needed to assess a model’s ability to
capture observed ENSO behavior. Using the larger ensembles available
from CMIP6 and the CLIVAR Large Ensemble Project, we find that larger
ensembles are needed to robustly capture baseline ENSO characteristics
(N > 65) and physical processes (N > 50) than
the background climatology (N ≥ 12) and remote ENSO teleconnections (N ≥
6). While these results vary somewhat across metrics and models, our
study highlights that ensembles are required to robustly evaluate
simulated historical ENSO behavior, and provide initial guidance for
designing model ensembles to reliably evaluate and compare ENSO
simulations.