Abstract
The spread in global mean precipitation among climate models is explored
in two ensembles using the complementary perspectives of surface
evaporation and energy budgets. Models with higher global-mean
precipitation have stronger oceanic evaporation, driven by drier
near-surface air. The drier surface conditions occur alongside increases
in near-surface temperature and moisture at 925 hPa, which point to
stronger boundary layer mixing. Correlations suggest that the degree of
lower tropospheric mixing explains 18%-49% of the intermodel
precipitation variance. To test this hypothesis, the degree of mixing is
varied in a single-model experiment by adjusting the relative humidity
threshold that controls low-cloud fraction. Indeed, increasing lower
tropospheric mixing results in more global mean precipitation.
Energetically, increased precipitation rates are associated with more
downwelling longwave radiation to the surface and weaker sensible heat
fluxes. These results highlight how lower-tropospheric processes must be
better constrained to reduce the precipitation discrepancy among climate
models.