Spatio-temporal modeling of high-throughput multi-spectral images
improves agronomic trait genomic prediction in hybrid maize
Abstract
To accelerate plant breeding genetic gain, spatial heterogeneity must be
considered. Previously, design randomizations and spatial corrections
have increased understanding of genotypic, spatial, and residual effects
in field experiments. This study proposes a two-stage approach for
improving agronomic trait genomic prediction (GP) using high-throughput
phenotyping (HTP) via unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) imagery. The
normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is measured using a
multi-spectral MicaSense camera and ImageBreed. The first stage
separates additive genetic effects from local environmental effects
(LEE) present in the NDVI throughout the growing season. Considered NDVI
LEE (NLEE) are spatial effects from univariate/multivariate
two-dimensional splines (2DSpl) and separable autoregressive (AR1)
models, as well as permanent environment (PE) effects from random
regression models (RR). The second stage leverages the NLEE within
genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) in two distinct
implementations, either modelling an empirical plot-to-plot covariance
(L) for random effects or modelling fixed effects (FE). Testing on
Genomes-to-Fields (G2F) hybrid maize (Zea mays) field experiments in
2017, 2019, and 2020 for grain yield (GY), grain moisture (GM), and ear
height (EH) improves heritability and model fit equally-or-greater than
spatial corrections; however, genotypic effect estimation across
replicates is not significantly improved. Electrical conductance (EC),
elevation, and curvature from a 2019 soil survey significantly improve
GP model fit, but less than NLEE. Soil EC and curvature are most
correlated to univariate 2DSpl NLEE. Defining L significantly improves
genomic heritability and model fit more than setting FE, and RR NLEE can
most significantly improve GP for GY and GM.