On the role of serial correlation and field significance in detecting
changes in extreme precipitation frequency
Abstract
Statistical trend analyses of observed precipitation (P) time series are
key to validate theoretical arguments and climate projections suggesting
that extreme P will increase in a warmer climate. Recent work warned
about possible misinterpretation of trend tests if the presence of
serial correlation and field significance are not considered. Here, we
investigate these two aspects focusing on extreme P frequencies derived
from 100-year daily records of 1087 worldwide gauges of the Global
Historical Climate Network. For this aim, we perform Monte Carlo
experiments based on count time series generated with the Poisson
integer autoregressive model and characterized by different sample size,
level of autocorrelation, and trend magnitude. The main results are as
follows. (1) Empirical autocorrelations are consistent with those of
uncorrelated and stationary or nonstationary count time series, while
empirical trends cannot be explained as the exclusive effect of
autocorrelation; incorporating the impact of serial correlation in trend
tests on extreme P frequency has then limited impacts on tests’
performance. (2) Accounting for field significance improves
interpretation of test results by limiting type-I errors, but it also
decreases test power; results of local tests could complement field
significance outcomes and help identify weak trend signals where several
trends of coherent sign are detected. (3) Based on these findings,
evident patterns of statistically significant increasing (decreasing)
trends emerge in central and eastern North America, northern Eurasia,
and central Australia (southwestern America, southern Europe, and
southern Australia). The methodological insights of this work support
trend analyses of any hydroclimatic variable