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Influence of projected climate change, urban expansion and heat adaptation strategies on end of 21st century urban boundary layer across the Conterminous US
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  • Aldo Brandi,
  • Ashley Broadbent,
  • Scott Krayenhoff,
  • Matei Georgescu
Aldo Brandi
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning - Arizona State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ashley Broadbent
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning - Arizona State University
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Scott Krayenhoff
School of Environmental Sciences - University of Guelph
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Matei Georgescu
School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning - Arizona State University
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Abstract

The urban environment directly influences the evolution of the Urban Boundary Layer (UBL). Heat adaptation strategies proposed to help cities respond to global change and urban induced warming, are also expected to reduce the intensity of convective mixing and decrease UBL depth, thereby reducing the volume of air available to pollutant dilution and dispersion. We use 20 km resolution WRF-ARW decadal scale simulations that account for end of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions, urban expansion and intensive and uniform implementation of cool roofs, green roofs and street trees to investigate the individual and combined impacts of these drivers on the dynamics of the UBL over the Conterminous US (CONUS). Results indicate that combined impacts of climate change and urban expansion are expected to increase summer (JJA) daytime UBL depth in the eastern regions of CONUS (peak value: Δh ≅ 80 m over Atlanta metro area). When adaptation strategies are applied, summer daytime UBL depth is reduced by a few hundred meters (peak value: Δh ≅ -310 m over Dallas and Fort Worth metro areas) in all CONUS regions as a consequence of decreased surface sensible heat fluxes. Adaptation impacts are greater inland and smaller over coastal cities. In arid regions, the adaptation induced increase in latent heat fluxes can counterbalance the projected decrease in UBL depth. Furthermore, adaptation strategies are expected to increase the static stability of both daytime and nighttime UBLs and decrease the magnitude of vertical winds, inducing earlier and stronger subsidence (peak value: Δm/s ≅ -0.05 m over Phoenix and Tucson metro areas). In light of these findings, ongoing work addressing these aspects with convection resolving, high-resolution simulations is needed to determine whether the widespread implementation of urban adaptation measures could have deleterious effects for urban air quality in the cities of the future Contiguous US.