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\begin{document}

\title{Influence of projected climate change, urban expansion and heat
adaptation strategies on end of 21st century urban boundary layer across
the Conterminous US}



\author[1]{Aldo Brandi}%
\author[1]{Ashley Broadbent}%
\author[2]{Scott Krayenhoff}%
\author[1]{Matei Georgescu}%
\affil[1]{School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning - Arizona State University}%
\affil[2]{School of Environmental Sciences - University of Guelph}%


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  \date{May 19, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The urban environment directly influences the evolution of the Urban
Boundary Layer (UBL). Heat adaptation strategies proposed to help cities
respond to global change and urban induced warming, are also expected to
reduce the intensity of convective mixing and decrease UBL depth,
thereby reducing the volume of air available to pollutant dilution and
dispersion. We use 20 km resolution WRF-ARW decadal scale simulations
that account for end of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions, urban
expansion and intensive and uniform implementation of cool roofs, green
roofs and street trees to investigate the individual and combined
impacts of these drivers on the dynamics of the UBL over the
Conterminous US (CONUS). Results indicate that combined impacts of
climate change and urban expansion are expected to increase summer (JJA)
daytime UBL depth in the eastern regions of CONUS (peak value: \selectlanguage{greek}Δ\selectlanguage{english}h [?] 80 m
over Atlanta metro area). When adaptation strategies are applied, summer
daytime UBL depth is reduced by a few hundred meters (peak value: \selectlanguage{greek}Δ\selectlanguage{english}h [?]
-310 m over Dallas and Fort Worth metro areas) in all CONUS regions as a
consequence of decreased surface sensible heat fluxes. Adaptation
impacts are greater inland and smaller over coastal cities. In arid
regions, the adaptation induced increase in latent heat fluxes can
counterbalance the projected decrease in UBL depth. Furthermore,
adaptation strategies are expected to increase the static stability of
both daytime and nighttime UBLs and decrease the magnitude of vertical
winds, inducing earlier and stronger subsidence (peak value: \selectlanguage{greek}Δ\selectlanguage{english}m/s [?]
-0.05 m over Phoenix and Tucson metro areas). In light of these
findings, ongoing work addressing these aspects with convection
resolving, high-resolution simulations is needed to determine whether
the widespread implementation of urban adaptation measures could have
deleterious effects for urban air quality in the cities of the future
Contiguous US.%
\end{abstract}%



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