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Drought-busting ‘miracles’ in the Colorado River Basin may become less frequent and less powerful under climate warming
  • +13
  • Binod Pokharel,
  • Kripa Akila Jagannathan,
  • Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang,
  • Andrew D Jones,
  • Paul Ullrich,
  • L. Ruby Leung,
  • Matthew LaPlante,
  • Smitha Buddhavarapu,
  • Krishna borhara,
  • James Eklund,
  • Candice Hasenyager,
  • Jake Serago,
  • James Prairie,
  • Laurna Kaatz,
  • Taylor Winchell,
  • Frank Kugel
Binod Pokharel
Tribhuvan University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kripa Akila Jagannathan
University of California, Berkeley
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Shih-Yu (Simon) Wang
Utah State University
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Andrew D Jones
Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory
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Paul Ullrich
University of California Davis
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L. Ruby Leung
PNNL
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Matthew LaPlante
Utah State Univeristy
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Smitha Buddhavarapu
Unknown
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Krishna borhara
Unknown
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James Eklund
Eklund Hanlon LLC
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Candice Hasenyager
Utah Division of Water Resources
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Jake Serago
Utah Division of Water Resources
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James Prairie
US Bureau of Reclamation
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Laurna Kaatz
Denver Water
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Taylor Winchell
Denver Water
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Frank Kugel
12Upper Gunnison River Water Conservancy District
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Abstract

Drought-busting events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the “Miracle May” of 2015 that greatly alleviated an unprecedented water shortage, have been observed for more than a century. But while such events are much prayed for in times of drought, they have not been well researched or even characterized. In this study, conducted in collaboration with water managers from across the basin, we propose a definition for “miracle events” that reflects real-world, actionable relevance. The resulting characterization offers a framework by which to quantify the frequency and strength of extreme dry-to-wet springtime transitions. While limited by uncertainties in model simulations and the myriad hydrological futures these simulations seek to project, and thus requiring cautious interpretation, this study finds that such transitions may become less frequent and less powerful under climate warming.