Drought-busting ‘miracles’ in the Colorado River Basin may become less
frequent and less powerful under climate warming
Abstract
Drought-busting events in the Colorado River Basin, such as the
“Miracle May” of 2015 that greatly alleviated an unprecedented water
shortage, have been observed for more than a century. But while such
events are much prayed for in times of drought, they have not been well
researched or even characterized. In this study, conducted in
collaboration with water managers from across the basin, we propose a
definition for “miracle events” that reflects real-world, actionable
relevance. The resulting characterization offers a framework by which to
quantify the frequency and strength of extreme dry-to-wet springtime
transitions. While limited by uncertainties in model simulations and the
myriad hydrological futures these simulations seek to project, and thus
requiring cautious interpretation, this study finds that such
transitions may become less frequent and less powerful under climate
warming.