Abstract
Socio-economic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
(SSPs) have been widely used to analyse global change impacts, but
representing their diversity is a challenge for the analytical tools
applied to them. Taking Great Britain as an example, we represent a set
of stakeholder-elaborated UK-SSP scenarios, linked to climate change
scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways), in a
globally-embedded agent-based modelling framework. We find that distinct
model components are required to account for divergent behavioural,
social and societal conditions in the SSPs, and that these have dramatic
impacts on land system outcomes. From strong social networks and
environmental sustainability in SSP1 to land consolidation and
technological intensification in SSP5, scenario-specific model designs
vary widely from one another and from present-day conditions. Changes in
social and human capitals can generate impacts larger than those of
technological and economic change, and comparable to those of modelled
climate change. We develop an open-access, transferrable model framework
and provide UK-SSP projections to 2080 at 1km2 resolution, revealing
large differences in land management intensities, provision of a range
of ecosystem services, and the knowledge and motivations underlying land
manager decision-making. These differences suggest the existence of
large but underappreciated areas of scenario space, within which novel
options for land system sustainability could occur.