Ensemble skill gains obtained from the multi-physics versus multi-model
approaches for continental-scale hydrological simulations
Abstract
Multi-physics ensemble simulations have emerged as a promising approach
to ensemble hydrological simulations due to the advantages in process
understanding and model development. As a multi-physics ensemble is
constructed by perturbing the physics of multi-physics models, the
ensemble members share a substantial portion of the same physics and
hence are not independent of each other. It is unknown whether and to
what extent the independence of the ensemble members affects the
ensemble skill gain, especially compared with the multi-model ensemble
approach. This study compares a multi-physics ensemble constructed from
the Noah land surface model with multi-parameterization options
(Noah-MP) with the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)
multi-model ensemble. The two ensembles are evaluated at 12 River
Forecast Centers over the conterminous United States. The ensemble skill
gain is measured by the difference between the performance of the
ensemble mean and the average of the ensemble members’ performance, and
the inter-member independence is measured by error correlations. The
results show that the Noah-MP members outperform, on average, the NLDAS
models, especially in the snow-dominated areas. In addition, the
best-performing models among the two ensembles are mostly Noah-MP
members. However, these two performance superiorities do not lead to the
superiority of the ensemble mean. The Noah-MP multi-physics ensemble has
a low ensemble skill gain, resulting from a high error correlation among
the ensemble members. This study suggests that the methods of ensemble
construction and optimization should be improved to also consider
inter-member independence, especially for a multi-physics ensemble.