The EU H2020 SafeSpace project aims to develop a prototype pipeline that connects several tools in a modular fashion to address the physics of the Sun – Interplanetary space – Earth’s magnetosphere with the ultimate goal to forecast radiation belts dynamics. We present a part of the pipeline called Helio1D that is dedicated to forecasting the solar wind properties at the Lagrangian L1 point. Helio1D models solar wind propagation using input data obtained from the MULTI-VP model, which itself models solar wind emergence near Sun based on magnetograms and coronal field reconstruction. In particular, we aim to forecast the properties of the regular solar wind, as well as Corotating Interaction Regions and their high-speed streams which are most geo-effective (for radiation belts in particular). We take an ensemble forecasting approach to provide optimum forecast up to 2 – 4 days of lead time. We also couple the Helio1D pipeline with neural network models that predict geomagnetic indices such as the Kp index for magnetospheric space weather forecasting. In this presentation, we will present the Helio1D pipeline status, as well as its benchmarking and calibration in order to provide optimum forecasting in real-time. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437.

Magnetopause Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) waves are believed to mediate solar wind plasma transport via small-scale mechanisms. Vortex-induced reconnection (VIR) was predicted in simulations and recently observed using NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission data. Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) produced by VIR at multiple locations along the periphery of KH waves were also predicted in simulations but detailed observations were still lacking. Here we report MMS observations of an FTE-type structure in a KH wave trailing edge during KH activity on 5 May 2017 on the dawnside flank magnetopause. The structure is characterised by (1) bipolar magnetic BY variation with enhanced core field BZ and (2) enhanced total pressure with dominant magnetic pressure. The cross-section size of the FTE is found to be consistent with vortex-induced flux ropes predicted in the simulations. Unexpectedly, we observe an ion jet (VY), electron parallel heating, ion and electron density enhancements, and other signatures that can be interpreted as a reconnection exhaust at the FTE central current sheet. Moreover, pitch angle distributions of suprathermal electrons on either side of the current sheet show different properties, indicating different magnetic connectivities. This FTE-type structure may thus alternatively be interpreted as two interlaced flux tubes with reconnection at the interface as reported by Kacem et al. (2018) and Øieroset et al. (2019). The structure may be the result of interaction between two flux tubes, likely produced by multiple VIR at the KH wave trailing edge, and constitutes a new class of phenomenon induced by KH waves.

Flux Transfer Events (FTEs) are transient phenomena produced by magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause typically under southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. They are usually thought of as magnetic flux ropes with helical structures forming through patchy, unsteady, or multiple X-line reconnection. While the IMF often has a non-zero $B_Y$ component, its impacts on the FTE flux rope helicity remain unknown. We survey Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) observations of FTE flux ropes during the years 2015 – 2017 and investigate the solar wind conditions prior to the events. By fitting a force-free flux rope model, we select 84 events with good fits and obtain the helicity sign (i.e., handedness) of the flux ropes. We find that positive (negative) helicity flux ropes are mainly preceded by a positive (negative) $B_Y$ component. This finding is compatible with flux ropes formed through a multiple X-line mechanism.