The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co-evolutionary pathways of human and Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, and amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions and concepts, identifies MSD science questions in the context of the current state of knowledge, and describes ongoing activities to expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions in data and computing, and grow and diversify the MSD workforce. Central to our vision is the ambition of advancing the next generation of complex adaptive human-Earth systems science to better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, and improve sustainability. This will require convergent research and the integration of ideas and methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding the tradeoffs, synergies, and complexities that exist in coupled human-Earth systems is particularly important in the context of energy transitions and increased future shocks.

A growing literature emphasizes the importance of integrating climate change impacts into electricity system planning. Rising average temperatures can increase and shift electricity demand while reducing generator and transmission efficiency. Changes to water availability and quality can reduce the output of thermally cooled generators and hydropower. Electric power grids across the US and globally are undergoing transformational changes that present new opportunities and challenges to reliability assurance. However, electric utilities and system operators have limited internal capabilities to incorporate these effects into planning practices. This work addresses gaps in utility and system planner practices by integrating climate-water-electricity expertise from universities and U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratories with electricity system planners and stakeholders in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). Using a highly collaborative approach, global climate model data, high-resolution hydrology models, and long-term electric sector capacity expansion tools are employed to analyze a range of climate outcomes for future electricity scenarios aligned with recent WECC planning studies. Doing so allows WECC to expand its climate-agnostic planning assessments to consider how future temperature and precipitation patterns could influence generation and transmission planning. We explore how changes to climate-water conditions can affect power plant investment and operation, system economics, and environmental impacts, providing an expanded perspective on interconnection-wide decision making under climate uncertainty.

Increasing competition for water resources in the United States could create future challenges for allocating and using thermal cooling water in the U.S. electric power sector. While thermal power plant retirements and the growth of wind and solar technologies can reduce national aggregate power sector cooling water use, local water constraints and growing demand for agricultural or municipal supply could create greater needs for higher-cost alternative water supplies such as groundwater or recycled wastewater. For some regions, these incentives could change future electricity planning and operational decisions. These relationships and impacts are studied here using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a national electric sector planning model that has recently been upgraded to include a highly detailed representation of thermal cooling water demand and supply. Thermal power technologies are differentiated by both cooling technology and water source type to track and constrain thermal cooling water use in a way that incorporates both physical and legal water considerations in the United States. This capability is exercised under a range of electricity sector futures with alternative technology costs, fuel prices, and water constraints to illustrate ways that U.S. electric sector water use could evolve under uncertain future electric sector drivers. In exploring changes to regional generation and transmission planning and operation, water requirements, and cost, we highlight the environmental and economic impacts of future power sector water decisions.