The effect of increased water vapor from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai
eruption on the Antarctic ozone hole
Abstract
The eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on 15 January 2022
was one of the most explosive eruptions of the last decades. The
unprecedented amount of water vapor injected into the stratosphere
increased the stratospheric water vapor burden by about 10%. Using
model runs from the ATLAS chemistry and transport model and Microwave
Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite observations, we show that while 20-40%
more water vapor than usual was entrained into the Antarctic polar
vortex as it formed (e.g., typical values of 4.6 ppm at 21.5 km
increased to 6.7 ppm), the direct effect of the increased water vapor on
Antarctic ozone depletion was minor. This is caused by the very low
temperatures in the vortex, which limit water vapor to the saturation
pressure and tend to reset any anomalies in water vapor by dehydration
before they can have an effect on ozone loss.