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Spatio-temporal variability of change points at the scale of the Congo watershed using the Bayessian approach
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  • Louis Kongoda Lisika,
  • Jacques Moliba Bankanza,
  • Agathe Balolo Sasa,
  • Louis Efoto Eale,
  • Vincent Lukanda Mwamba
Louis Kongoda Lisika
Département de Physique, Faculté des Sciences, Université de Kinshasa, B.P. 127, KinshasaXI, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
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Jacques Moliba Bankanza
Faculté de Pétrole et Gaz
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Agathe Balolo Sasa
Institut supérieur des techniques appliquées, B.P. 6593, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Louis Efoto Eale
Département de Physique, Faculté des Sciences, Université de Kinshasa, B.P. 127, KinshasaXI, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
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Vincent Lukanda Mwamba
Centre régional d’études nucléaires de Kinshasa (CREN-K), Kinshasa, D.R. Congo
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Abstract

The Lee and Heghinian’s bayesian approach was applied to CRU TS 3.1 grid precipitation data to detect change points at the Congo watershed scale. The locations that were sensitive to change point have been widely detected during 1969 and have been grouped in two zones that are located mainly in (a) the sub-basins of Bangui and (b) the Kasai and in the Cuvette Centrale. The signal of the persistence over two zones has been estimated at 8 years and 15 years covering respectively the period 1966-1973 (78% of the years on the total area) and 19661-1975 (68% of the years on the total area). Moreover, the change points over mentioned zones are respectively associated with 85% and 77% of the negative values of the shift magnitude. However, about 20.0% and 10.6% of the total area of the Congo watershed were sensitive to change points and the base of precipitation, respectively.