A generic model of global earthquake rupture characteristics revealed by
machine learning
Abstract
Rupture processes of global large earthquakes have been observed to
exhibit great variability, whereas recent studies suggest that the
average rupture behavior could be unexpectedly simple. To what extent do
large earthquakes share common rupture characteristics? Here we use a
machine learning algorithm to derive a generic model of global
earthquake source time functions. The model indicates that simple and
homogeneous ruptures are pervasive whereas complex and irregular
ruptures are relatively rare. Despite the standard long-tail and
near-symmetric moment release processes, the model reveals two special
rupture types: runaway earthquakes with weak growing phases and
relatively abrupt termination, and complex earthquakes with all faulting
mechanisms but mostly shallow origins (<40 km). The diversity
of temporal moment release patterns imposes a limit on magnitude
predictability in earthquake early warning. Our results present a
panoptic view on the collective similarity and diversity in the rupture
processes of global large earthquakes.