The diversity of slip processes occurring in the megathrust indicates that stress is highly variable in space and time. Based on GNSS and InSAR data, we study in depth the evolution of the interplate slip-rate along the Oaxaca subduction zone, Mexico, from October 2016 through August 2020, including the pre-seismic, coseismic and post-seismic phases associated with the 2020 Mw 7.4 Huatulco earthquake, to understand how different slip processes contribute to the stress accumulation in the region. Our results show that continuous changes in both the aseismic stress-releasing slip and the coupling produced a high stress concentration over the main asperity of the Huatulco earthquake and a stress shadow zone in the adjacent updip region. These findings may explain both the downdip rupture propagation of the Huatulco earthquake and its rupture impediment to shallower, tsunamigenic interface regions, respectively. Time variations of the interplate coupling around the adjacent 1978 Puerto Escondido rupture zone clearly correlate with the occurrence of the last three Slow Slip Events (SSEs) in Oaxaca far downdip of this zone, suggesting that SSEs are systematically accompanied by interplate coupling counterparts in the shallower seismogenic zone. In the same period, the interface region of the 1978 event experienced a remarkably high CFS built-up, imparted by the co-seismic and early post-seismic slip of the Huatulco rupture, indicating large earthquake potential near Puerto Escondido. Continuous monitoring of the interplate slip-rate thus provides a better estimation of the stress accumulation in the seismogenic regions where future earthquakes are likely to occur.

The triggering of large earthquakes on a fault hosting aseismic slip or, conversely, the triggering of slow slip events (SSE) by passing seismic waves involves seismological questions with important hazard implications. Just a few observations plausibly suggest that such interactions actually happen in nature. In this study we show that three recent devastating earthquakes in Mexico are likely related to SSEs, describing a cascade of events interacting with each other on a regional scale via quasi-static and/or dynamic perturbations. Such interaction seems to be conditioned by the transient memory of Earth materials subject to the “traumatic” stressing produced by the seismic waves of the great 2017 (Mw8.2) Tehuantepec earthquake, which strongly disturbed the aseismic slip beating over a 650 km long segment of the subduction plate interface. Our results imply that seismic hazard in large populated areas is a short-term evolving function of seismotectonic processes that are often observable.

Accurate kinematic models are fundamental to enhance our knowledge of the seismic cycle as well as to improve surface ground motion prediction. However, the solution of the ill-posed kinematic inverse problem is non-unique (e.g., Cohee & Beroza, 1994; Wald & Heaton, 1994; Cotton & Campillo, 1995 and Minson et al., 2013) and, according to current acquisition systems surrounding active faults, this problem is highly underdetermined, in spite of its rather simple formulation as a linear inverse problem. Non-linear formulations of the problem, based on model reduction strategies, alleviate the underdetermination of the problem. However, non-linear formulations imply drastic assumptions on the rupture history and they complicate the use of linear algebra tools to assess the uncertainties of results. Regardless of the assumed inverse formulation, the incorporation of physical constrains and prior information into the inverse problem is necessary to provide more robust and plausible solutions. In this work (Sanchez-Reyes et al. 2018), we present a new hierarchical linear time domain kinematic source inversion method able to assimilate data traces through evolutive time windows. This progressive approach, both on the data and model spaces, does require mild assumptions based on prior knowledge or preconditioning strategies on the slip rate local gradient estimations. Contrary to similar approaches (Fan et al., 2014), this strategy benefits from the sparsity and causality of the seismic rupture while still ensuring the positivity of the solution. While standard regularization terms are used for stabilizing the inversion, strategies based on parameter reduction leading to a non-linear relationship between the source history and the observed seismograms are avoided. Rise time, rupture velocity and other attributes can be extracted later on from the slip-rate inversion we perform. . Satisfactory results are obtained on synthetic benchmarks proposed by the Source Inversion Validation project (Mai et al. 2016) and for the 2016 M$_w$7.0 Kumamoto mainshock. Our specific formulation combined with simple prior information, as well as numerical results obtained so far, yields interesting perspectives for a quasi-real-time implementation and to ease the uncertainty quantification of such ill-conditioned problem.