Abstract
We propose two new methods to calibrate the parameters of the
epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model based on expectation
maximization (EM) while accounting for temporal variation of catalog
completeness. The first method allows for model calibration on
earthquake catalogs with long history, featuring temporal variation of
the magnitude of completeness, mc. This extended
calibration technique is beneficial for long-term probabilistic seismic
hazard assessment (PSHA), which is often based on a mixture of
instrumental and historical catalogs. The second method jointly
estimates ETAS parameters and high-frequency detection incompleteness to
address the potential biases in parameter calibration due to short-term
aftershock incompleteness. For this, we generalize the concept of
completeness magnitude and consider a rate- and magnitude-dependent
detection probability – embracing incompleteness instead of avoiding
it. Using synthetic tests, we show that both methods can accurately
invert the parameters of simulated catalogs. We then use them to
estimate ETAS parameters for California using the earthquake catalog
since 1932. To explore how the newly gained information from the second
method affects earthquakes’ predictability, we conduct
pseudo-prospective forecasting experiments for California. Our proposed
model significantly outperforms the base ETAS model, and we find that
the ability to include small earthquakes for simulation of future
scenarios is the main driver of the improvement. Our results point
towards a preference of earthquakes to trigger similarly sized
aftershocks, which has potentially major implications for our
understanding of earthquake interaction mechanisms and for the future of
seismicity forecasting.