Pitfalls in using statistical bias-correction methods to characterize
climate change impacts
Abstract
Characterizing climate change impacts on water resources typically
relies on Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs that are bias-corrected
using observational datasets. In this process, two pivotal decisions are
(i) the Bias Correction Method (BCM) and (ii) how to handle the
historically observed time series, which can be used as a continuous
whole (i.e., without dividing it into sub-periods), or partitioned into
monthly, seasonal (e.g., three months), or any other temporal
stratification (TS). Here, we examine how the interplay between the
choice of BCM, TS, and the raw GCM seasonality may affect historical
portrayals and projected changes. To this end, we use outputs from 29
GCMs belonging to the CMIP6 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway
5–8.5 scenario, using seven BCMs and three TSs (entire period,
seasonal, and monthly). The results show that the effectiveness of BCMs
in removing biases can vary depending on the TS and climate indices
analyzed. Further, the choice of BCM and TS may yield different
projected change signals and seasonality (especially for precipitation),
even for climate models with low bias and a reasonable representation of
precipitation seasonality during a reference period. Because some BCMs
may be computationally expensive, we recommend using the linear scaling
method as a diagnostics tool to assess how the choice of TS may affect
the projected precipitation seasonality of a specific GCM. More
generally, the results presented here unveil trade-offs in the way BCMs
are applied, regardless of the climate regime, urging the hydroclimate
community for a careful implementation of these techniques.