Midlatitude continental CAPE is predictable from large-scale
environmental parameters
Abstract
A recent study by Agard and Emanuel (2017) proposed a simple equation
for a quantity that scales with convective available potential energy
(CAPE) that can be directly calculated from a limited number of
environmental sounding parameters without lifting a hypothetical air
parcel. This scaling CAPE was applied in a specific idealized framework,
but the extent to which it can predict true CAPE in the real world has
not been tested. This work uses reanalysis data over the U.S to
demonstrate that this scaling CAPE does indeed scale very closely with
CAPE, following a linear relationship with a scaling factor of 0.44. We
then explain why they scale together via a step-by-step derivation of
the theoretical assumptions linking scaling CAPE and real CAPE and their
manifestation in the historical data. Overall, this work demonstrates
that CAPE can be predicted from large-scale environmental parameters
alone, which may be useful for a wide range of applications in weather
and climate.