Can we rely on machine learning to reveal short term precursors
of volcanic activity on Mt. Etna?
Abstract
Volcanic eruptions are usually not easily predictable and this poses a
significant hazard not only for exposures to the local population but
due to possible presence of tephra also for airline traffic. The
significant investments of the last years in new monitoring techniques
and networks have improved our capabilities to sense volcano health, but
the path to automatically recognize signs of potentially hazardous
unrest is still long. On the other hand, machine learning is currently
living a period of tumultuous growth and it is possible to find its
applications practically in all the contexts where there is an overflow
of data to be interpreted. Our aim is to exploit the capability of some
established algorithms in machine learning to test their reliability in
early detecting anomalous signals from the monitoring network before
eruption events on Mt. Etna (Italy). In particular, we evaluate the
effectiveness of using random forest approaches to learn from the
measured signals the complex dynamics of the Etnean volcanic environment
without any a-priori information on the data relationships. Such models
are then tested against real eruptive cases to assess their performance.