Causal links between sea-ice variability in the Barents-Kara Seas and
oceanic and atmospheric drivers
Abstract
The sea-ice cover in the Barents and Kara Seas (BKS) displays pronounced
interannual variability. Both atmospheric and oceanic drivers have been
found to influence sea-ice variability, but their relative strength and
regional importance remain under debate. Here, we use the Liang-Kleeman
information flow method to quantify the causal influence of oceanic and
atmospheric drivers on the annual sea-ice cover in the BKS in the
Community Earth System Model large ensemble and reanalysis. We find that
atmospheric drivers dominate in the northern part, ocean heat transport
dominates in the central and northeastern part, and local sea-surface
temperature dominates in the southern part. Furthermore, the large-scale
atmospheric circulation over the Nordic Seas drives ocean heat transport
into the Barents Sea, which then influences sea ice. Under future
sea-ice retreat, the atmospheric drivers are expected to become more
important.