Ashok Dahal

and 1 more

For decades, the distinction between statistical models and machine learning ones has been clear. The former are optimized to produce interpretable results, whereas the latter seeks to maximize the predictive performance of the task at hand. This is valid for any scientific field and for any method belonging to the two categories mentioned above. When attempting to predict natural hazards, this difference has lead researchers to make drastic decisions on which aspect to prioritize, a difficult choice to make. In fact, one would always seek the highest performance because at higher performances correspond better decisions for disaster risk reduction. However, scientists also wish to understand the results, as a way to rely on the tool they developed. Today, very recent development in deep learning have brought forward a new generation of interpretable artificial intelligence, where the prediction power typical of machine learning tools is equipped with a level of explanatory power typical of statistical approaches. In this work, we attempt to demonstrate the capabilities of this new generation of explainable artificial intelligence (ExAI). To do so, we take the landslide susceptibility context as reference. Specifically, we build an ExAI trained to model landslides occurred in response to the Gorkha earthquake (25 April 2015), providing an educational overview of the model design and its querying opportunities. The results are surprising, the performance are extremely high, while the interpretability can be extended to the probabilistic result assigned to single mapping units. This is also showcased in a web-GIS (\textcolor{blue}{https://arcg.is/0unziD}) platform we built.

Hakan Tanyas

and 3 more

Roads can have a significant impact on the frequency of mass wasting events in mountainous areas. However, characterizing the extent and pervasiveness of landslides over time rarely been documented due to limitations in available data sources to consistently map such events. We monitored the evolution of a road network and assessed its effect on slope stability for a ten year window in Arhavi, Turkey. The main road construction projects run in the area are associated with a hydroelectric power plant as well as other road extension works and are clearly associated with the vast majority (90.1%) of mass movements in the area. We also notice that the overall number and size of the landslides are much larger than in the naturally-occurring comparison area. This marks a strong and negative effect of human activities on the natural course of earth surface processes. Our findings show that the damage generated by the road construction is compatible with the possible effect of a theoretical earthquake with a magnitude greater than Mw=6.0. Overall, better co- and post-construction conditions should be ensured during and after road works to mitigate the risk to local communities. We also notice a significant variation in sediment transport as a result of road construction. As a result, our study fits in the big picture of Anthropocene related changes and specifically points out at problems in mountainous areas that could undoubtedly be better managed to reduce the risk to local communities.